The most effective greenhouse gas is water vapor. Water naturally evaporates from the sea and spreads out, and can amplify or suppress the other effects because of its reflective and absorbing capability.
The two most potent emitted greenhouse gases emitted are CO2 and methane. Because of its heat-trapping properties and lifespan in the atmosphere, methane's effect on global warming is 22–25 times
higher than CO2 per kilo released to atmosphere. By order of importance to greenhouse effects, CO2 emissions contribute 72–77%, methane 14–18%, nitrous
oxides 8–9% and other gases less than 1%. (sources: Wikipedia, UNEP)
The main source of carbon dioxide emissions is burning of hydrocarbons. Out of 29 billion tons (many publications use teragram (Tg) = million tons) of CO2 emitted in 2008, 18 billion tons or about 60%
of the total comes from oil and gas, the remainder is coal, peat and renewable bioenergy, such as firewood. 11% or 3.2 billion tons comes from the oil and gas industry itself in the form of losses, local heating, power generation, etc.
The annual emissions are about 1% of total atmospheric CO2, which is in balance with about 50 times more carbon dioxide dissolved in seawater. This balance is dependent on sea temperature: Ocean
CO2 storage is reduced as temperature increases, but increases with the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere. Short term, the net effect is that about half
the CO2 emitted to air contributes to an increase of atmospheric CO2 by about 1.5 ppm annually.
For methane, the largest source of human activity-related methane emissions to atmosphere is from rice paddies and enteric fermentation in ruminant animals (dung and compost) from 1.4 billion cows and buffalos. These emissions are estimated at 78.5 Tg/year
(source: FAO) out of a total of 200 Tg, which is equivalent to about 5,000 Tg of CO2. Methane from the oil and gas industry accounts for around 30% of emissions, mainly from losses in transmission
and distribution pipelines and systems for natural gas.
There are many mechanisms affecting the overall balance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. CO2 has been measured both directly and in ice cores, and has increased from a pre-industrial value of around
250 ppm to 385 ppm today. Methane has increased from 1732 to 1774 ppb (parts per billion).
There is no full model that describes the net effect of these changes. It is well accepted that without CO2, methane and water vapor, the global average temperature would be about 30 °C colder. The
current data correlates well with a current global average temperature increase from a pre-industrial global average of 13.7 °C to 14.4 °C today. The atmosphere and seas have large heat trapping capacity, which makes their temperatures
rise. These temperature rises lag behind greenhouse gas temperature increases. It is therefore predicted that the temperature will continue to rise by about 1 °C even if there were no further increase in levels of CO2 and methane.
The heat capacity of the atmosphere and seas also means that when the temperature increases, there will be more energy stored in the atmosphere, which is expected to drive more violent weather systems.
The main contribution to sea level change in the short-to-medium term is thermal expansion of the oceans, currently predicted to have reached about 0.15 m over pre-industrial standards, and currently rising some 3 mm/year. Although the melting of inland
ice in Greenland and Antarctica is reported, this will mainly have local effects, as this ice will possibly take 15–20,000 years to have any significant contribution to sea levels. However, polar glaciation and sea ice is an important
indicator of global warming, and in particular, Arctic summer temperatures have risen and sea ice has been significantly reduced in area and thickness.